View Single Post
      06-11-2019, 08:16 AM   #41
AVB-AMG
Private
AVB-AMG's Avatar
53
Rep
72
Posts

 
Drives: 2016 BMW X5M
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: NJ

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
As a car-guy, I enjoy the active involvement of driving a car, especially if it is a rare, old, fun, fast or just plain different type of car, truck, van or vehicle. Recently, I have been discussing with friends, co-workers and neighbors, some who are also car-folks and some who are not, the evolving and improving technology that will ultimately lead to self-driving cars, (aka: autonomous vehicles). Much has been written about how rapidly these autonomous vehicles may come to market, with thought provoking articles from both Dan Neil / WSJ and Mark Rechtin / Motor Trend, which I agree with. But that is only part of the equation of whether or not we will see them on the road anytime soon. I am not going to hold my breath….

Some folks can hardly wait for that time to come, while others, such as me are not as enthusiastic, as well as harbor concerns and doubts about a number of the challenges involved. While the concept of being whisked from point A to point B in the privacy of a small private vehicle, not shared with others, where we do not actively have to operate it, is a very compelling and appealing idea. One could argue that work productivity could conceivably increase by turning commuting time into work time. Or it may allow for continued personal time to eat, read or sleep. I will be the first to admit that a lengthy driving commute rapidly becomes very tedious, strenuous, tense and aggravating due to circumstances beyond one’s control including delays due to construction, accidents and other distracted drivers.

But I do relish the sheer fun and enjoyment of getting behind the wheel of a fun vehicle and taking it for a pleasure drive, preferably on non-congested and scenic roads. It is even more fun if the car is an open roadster or convertible where you have the wind in your face and hair and can hear nature and the wonderful engine and exhaust sounds of your car’s internal combustion engine.

Alas, I do not think that I have to worry about self-driving cars replacing our current crop of driver-required cars or trucks anytime soon. As others have speculated, we will most likely see long-haul trucks traveling on interstate highways as the first driver-less autonomous driving vehicles. And even those trucks will only travel on the major highways and will still require a driver to meet the vehicle as some predetermined rest stop to then actually drive the truck to its final destination, (like a Pilot helps the Captain of a ship navigate the waters of the port). This transportation evolution is not going to be delayed due to the rapidly improving technological advances being made by individual automobile manufacturers such as Tesla and consortium's and joint-ventures that include GM, Daimler, BMW, Audi, VW, Nissan, Toyota.

Autonomous driving vehicles will be delayed due to a number of important factors including: technology; costs; legal; infrastructure, weather, and human impatience and unpredictability. Let me explain:

Technology - While it still amazes me how fast technology has advanced to allow autonomous driving vehicles to move forward from a mere futuristic concept to a very real possibility, there are still significant hurdles to overcome. The multiple accidents involving autonomous driving vehicles and pedestrians, bicycle riders, as well as with other cars and trucks, are proof that there is still quite a few issues that need to be analyzed, reviewed, diagnosed and addressed before this concept can truly become a feasible, dependable and safe alternative to what we have now.

Infrastructure – We all know that most of our secondary and primary roadway network is in less than an optimal state of repair, let alone the horrible condition of our grid of urban and suburban residential streets. I read that there are over 4 million miles of roads in the US, with only about 2.7 million miles of those roads being paved. The current technology for autonomous vehicles require roadways that are in good shape and are well marked. This requirement will greatly limit exactly where autonomous vehicles can actually travel.

Costs – The NHTA estimates that the US spends roughly $100 billion per year just to maintain the roads we have as they are, filling potholes and re-painting lane markings, etc. Unless our dysfunctional Congress is willing to work together and generate a massive infrastructure improvement bill, estimated to cost over $1 trillion, we will not have roads that will accommodate autonomous vehicles.

Weather – At this point, no autonomous technology has been developed that can successfully cope with driving on snow-covered roads where lane markings are obscured and the snow/freezing rain driving conditions would interfere with the vehicle’s radar and laser sensors, as well as cameras. Just think how obstructed your back up camera image is during a snow storm and driving in sloppy slushy snow. It is possible to install sensors in the roads but that will be very costly.

Legal – Since the US is such a litigious society, we know that accidents involving autonomous vehicles will raise new legal questions, primarily focused on fault, especially involving a fatal accident. The automobile insurance industry working with the tort lawyers will have to figure out the challenging issue of who is at fault vs. no-fault if the car has no driver. Are manufacturers willing to assume some part of the legal liability? I tend to doubt many will want to or be able to afford to.

Human Impatience – We all know how impatient we humans are, especially in the NYC/NNJ metro region. Most of us drive faster than the posted speed limits, usually when conditions permit, but not always. We will pass stopped vehicles and pass slower moving vehicles, when possible. So far, with the beta-testing that Uber is doing in selected cities around the US, their specially equipped Volvo V90 SUV’s do not exceed the speed limit and do not pass stopped vehicles in front of them. I heard from drivers in Pittsburgh, (one of the Uber beta cities), that local drivers hate to be stuck behind any of these vehicles since it greatly slows down their trip. Will owners and occupants of autonomous vehicles be any more patient when in traffic….?

Human Unpredictability – How will the labyrinth orchestra of lasers, radar and cameras all connected to a computer that controls the acceleration, braking and steering of a car deal with erratic and/or impaired drivers of other vehicles, let alone jaywalking pedestrians, especially young children? Will the computer just slow everything down? Is this the right solution? Is a slower commute or trip going to be a result of autonomous cars usurping driver-required cars?

The combination of all these factors and issues make me sleep well at night knowing that we probably will not see a significant number of autonomous vehicles on American roads for the next 20 years. But alas, it will eventually happen…..

AVB-AMG
__________________

2016 BMW X5M
2014 BMW M6
2007 Mercedes-Benz ML63 AMG
2004 Mercedes-Benz E55 AMG