BMW Group global sales record best ever March and first quarter

[Matski]

Originally Posted by CSBM5

Except they're not. BMW stock peaked over 2 years ago in March of 2015. It's currently sitting down ~33% from then and has been down as much as 47%. It's in a long term downtrend until price action proves otherwise (i.e. breaking out above €98 and closing a downside gap opened a year ago).

In the meantime the DAX has rallied all the way back to the all-time high, within 1-2%, it reached coincident with BMW stock in March of 2015. So BMW stock is vastly under-performing the market even though all this "great news" is supposedly fantastic for shareholders. Note that during this time with the ECB monetizing debt to the tune of €80 billion/month, the ECB has also monetized some of BMW's debt like other EU corporations. Hence BMW has had a huge buyer at hand to helping lower their borrowing costs -- can't ask for more than that. Given all of that summed up, you'd think the stock wouldn't be down 33% with the Dax back at all-time high levels but instead much higher if the market actually believed the BMW long term plan yet.

That under-performance itself is a significant signal. Stay short until price tells you otherwise is what professional investors are doing with BMW stock. It's been a good ride down so far at least; perhaps it will be over soon, but nobody on earth actually knows.

It's not BMW's job to make money for traders... long term stable investment requires BMW to perform in a reliable and beneficial way with their dividend payouts to investors, for that, they need stability and sustainable growth in their profits. The value of the stocks for long term investors is still positive, and the dividend percentages have gradually been climbing, surely that can't be a bad thing?

[CSBM5]

Originally Posted by Matski

It's not BMW's job to make money for traders... long term stable investment requires BMW to perform in a reliable and beneficial way with their dividend payouts to investors, for that, they need stability and sustainable growth in their profits. The value of the stocks for long term investors is still positive, and the dividend percentages have gradually been climbing, surely that can't be a bad thing?

Depends on your timeframe. Not responding to what a market is telling you and choosing to believe a story is a free choice. I'm simply pointing out the glaring current discrepancy between "the story" and what the market is actually revealing. I'm sure there's no need to recap hundreds of historical examples to make the point.

[Matski]

Originally Posted by CSBM5

Depends on your timeframe. Not responding to what a market is telling you and choosing to believe a story is a free choice. I'm simply pointing out the glaring current discrepancy between "the story" and what the market is actually revealing. I'm sure there's no need to recap hundreds of historical examples to make the point.

In that case for the sake of clarity, which market aren't they responding to, and what information is simply a story?

[CSBM5]

Originally Posted by Matski

In that case for the sake of clarity, which market aren't they responding to, and what information is simply a story?

The story is that the current "success" isn't a simply a result of one of the biggest financializations of customer goodwill in automaker history. The story is people like Bob Lutz and anyone with a similar opinion are wrong about BMW. BMW in the current moment has glaring similarities to IBM circa late 1980s. Punchgate simply confirms the quest for meeting financial targets at any cost. What gets rewarded is what gets done, and right now what the management structure is rewarded for is short term success while everyone pays lip-service to the long term. Nobody in executive positions today, making plans that will absolutely affect long term profits will likely be around to suffer the consequences (not just referring to BMW here of course). In most cases if they are still around, exiting with a huge payout and multi-million pension is the punishment for their lack of foresight and skill.

Again, the above is yet another story, like any given narrative. What actually matters is price, preferably price in a truly free market which doesn't currently exist with all the central bank asset inflation taking place. Nobody actually knows the true clearing price for anything at the current time. However, we do know the current asset-inflated price of BMW stock as mentioned prior and how it is currently still in the midst of the 2+ year great divergence downward versus the market.

[Matski]

Originally Posted by CSBM5

The story is that the current "success" isn't a simply a result of one of the biggest financializations of customer goodwill in automaker history. The story is people like Bob Lutz and anyone with a similar opinion are wrong about BMW.

Okay, I see where you are going with this. I'm gonna disagree with you on the goodwill thing... primarily because companies, industries and markets evolve a different rate to individuals... the capacity for a goodwill disconnect when that happens is obviously high - however it's countered by new good will being earned through maintaining standards and delivering what the market wants.

Originally Posted by CSBM5

BMW in the current moment has glaring similarities to IBM circa late 1980s. Punchgate simply confirms the quest for meeting financial targets at any cost. What gets rewarded is what gets done, and right now what the management structure is rewarded for is short term success while everyone pays lip-service to the long term. Nobody in executive positions today, making plans that will absolutely affect long term profits will likely be around to suffer the consequences (not just referring to BMW here of course). In most cases if they are still around, exiting with a huge payout and multi-million pension is the punishment for their lack of foresight and skill.

Again, I disagree, BMW is going to great lengths to talk about long term future strategy - even so far as no longer referring to themselves as a car maker, but a "tech company and a mobility-service provider"! With all this talk of the next 25, 50 and 100 years, they're addressing a strategy that won't play out until half the board will probably be dead - as will Bob Lutz, and a lot of customers who think car evolution should have finished in the 1970's.

Originally Posted by CSBM5

However, we do know the current asset-inflated price of BMW stock as mentioned prior and how it is currently still in the midst of the 2+ year great divergence downward versus the market.

Look at how similarly the Daimler stock price has tracked with the BMW one for the past 5 years.... are you sure it's BMW who has underperformed against the DAX, or is it external factors affecting the European car industry?

[CSBM5]

As I said, it's just a narrative, a story. I could care less whether it's "right" or "wrong", since that is a subjective call for either side. Talk about long term plans is simply that. Cisco had great "talk" about long term plans in 2000, and they've more than quadrupled their revenue since then while their stock is off more than 75% here 17 years later. What matters to shareholders, long or short, is price, but the long term downtrend versus the hyperbole coming from management is what stands out in this case.

[kozzi]

Originally Posted by Matski

Genius.. a minimum 40% drop in sales, removal of products in all growth areas.. and deal a massive blow to Group profitability... yeah, that's going to result in BMW making better cars for sure ... totally ...

Thank you for making me spit coffee all over my screen...it was well worth the laugh.

Genius indeed...BMW could easily forfeit hundreds of millions in profits so the 1% enthusiast could make BMW great again.

[BMWZ4]

Originally Posted by conradb

Who buys a product with the idea that the company behind it cares about them? They're idiots.

Americans: Viper ACR, Corvette Grand Sport, Mustang GT350, Camaro ZL1 / z/28, Cadillac CTS-V/ATS-V...

That's why I own a track prepped Z06 Vette now.

I don't think of myself as an idiot. I can think of a few operations around the world that care about their impact on the customer. In any case, I don't lead a cynics life as you clearly do.

As for the vehicles you mention, can't speak to any of those you've listed, mostly because I'm not the target audience for those vehicles but they would never be on my radar. I'd buy a MB or a Tesla before I considered one of those mentioned.

[avex8]

Bmw so cheap everyone can afford it. My maid is driving a 5 series.

[marcva]

Originally Posted by BMWZ4

Yes, they're a public company. It's their job to make money for their investors. It's supposed to work that way.

If they don't give a frack about you, curious why you bought one....

Is there a manufacturer out there that you believe is doing EXACTLY the right thing with respect to building an "enthusiat's" car?

Porsche? GM? Ford?

[BMWZ4]

Originally Posted by marcva

Porsche? GM? Ford?

Porsche...maybe.

Ford and GM? Good one.

[marcva]

Originally Posted by BMWZ4

Porsche...maybe.

Ford and GM? Good one.

Though I haven't driven one yet, automotive journalists seem to comment that the mustangs handle and have feel like BMW's...the old ones that they loved. GM's performance cars all get solid reviews not only for raw, straight-line grunt like they used to (bitchin' Camaros) but also for their finesse.

Meanwhile, Car & Driver summarized the latest 540 as a great luxury sedan from a company that used to be known for performance sedans.

[CSBM5]

Originally Posted by marcva

Though I haven't driven one yet, automotive journalists seem to comment that the mustangs handle and have feel like BMW's...the old ones that they loved. GM's performance cars all get solid reviews not only for raw, straight-line grunt like they used to (bitchin' Camaros) but also for their finesse.

Meanwhile, Car & Driver summarized the latest 540 as a great luxury sedan from a company that used to be known for performance sedans.

Absolutely. GM and Ford are the new BMW of old in many ways. They are producing world-class performance cars that take no prisoners and are way ahead of anything BMW has actually ever built for the street (except perhaps a few non-USA market cars like the E46 M3 CSL). The GT350 with the flat plane V8 is a phenomenal performer, and the S550 Mustang based body-in-white has outstanding torsional and bending rigidity (finally) yielding a great platform - the first time I drove one I noticed it within the first 500'. Ford even provides for front camber adjustment on the Mustangs where you can get -2 degrees or a tad more up front so you don't destroy the tires within one track session like the new M3 or M2 easily do with their fixed and limited camber.

Similarly the C7 Vette is an outstanding performing car in all aspects. Even the base car with just the Z51 package is leaps and bounds ahead of an M2 or M3 for pure performance driving, track driving, autocrossing, etc.

SCOTT26 has stated many times here in the forum that what sells in the US today for BMW is "status." Heck even the recent BMW executive interview was enlightening as he stated how they softened everything up since their target market doesn't want cars like they used to build. When I see people criticize GM and Ford's achievements in their latest generation performance cars, their argument quickly falls apart when you get into details since it's not based on factual engineering design and performance but instead on either "status" or some other subjective measure.

In the meantime, companies like Ford and GM have kept the pedal to the floor on performance with great improvements in body-in-white rigidity, bushing design, suspension design, engine design...and it took GM to finally solve the wheel-hop problem that's plagued IRS equipped cars (like all BMWs) since forever -- actually Cadillac division figured out that using half-shafts with properly designed, *different* torsional rigidities the drivetrain-chassis windup/release oscillation (i.e. wheel hop) can be eliminated. This was over 5 years ago now. Guess who still is employing the same sized half-shafts in their IRS to this day (and of course subject to great and damaging wheel hop)?

[BimmerMat135]

Originally Posted by BMWZ4

Can't use Canada in any comparison. Market is way too small. Could be a number of factors why only 30k units sold more since 2007. Markets that count: US, China, all or parts of Europe....Canada ain't one of them.

Thoses sales figures include Canada and USA.

[MalibuBimmer]

So do BMW (various models from the 1 series to the Rollers) and GM (Buick) owe China for all their success these days?

[conradb]

Originally Posted by BMWZ4

Porsche...maybe.

Ford and GM? Good one.

BMW zealotry at its finest, folks.

[BMWZ4]

Originally Posted by conradb

BMW zealotry at its finest, folks.

Hardly. I've owned many, many brands over the years. I'm new to bmw since around '11. In the ~35 years of car ownership I've never considered a Ford or GM. As I said, I'm not their target audience.

Hardly a bmw "zealot"...but you're certainly entitled to your opinion.

[vladberca]

GM and Ford are doing well in USA.
In Europe they are not so impressive.
Full plastic interiors with very good track capabilities. To sum it a little bit 😁