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02-22-2020, 07:05 AM | #89 |
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Your dollar today will be .75 cents in the future really due to inflation. You had a poor finance professor.
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02-22-2020, 07:08 AM | #90 |
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Meh, don't try to time the market. Stay invested. Dollar cost average in over time. There will be ups and downs but the market always prevails.
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02-22-2020, 07:29 AM | #91 | |
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02-22-2020, 11:40 AM | #93 |
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I came to write this. I’m old 53 and I remember 2008 and 2011 and I’m through those and better than ever.
You cannot time the market. You can get lucky once and awhile but Nobody can do that consistant. Sorry. |
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02-23-2020, 08:31 AM | #95 | |
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02-23-2020, 08:56 AM | #96 | |
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02-24-2020, 06:23 AM | #98 |
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Corona
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02-24-2020, 02:21 PM | #99 |
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Corona, inverted curve and Bernie... in that order. Just adjusting prices closer to where they should have been anyway. Forward PE was assuming too much.
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02-24-2020, 02:28 PM | #100 |
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Good thing I'm all cash for now.
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02-24-2020, 02:42 PM | #101 | |
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02-24-2020, 04:54 PM | #102 |
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02-24-2020, 05:25 PM | #104 |
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02-24-2020, 05:37 PM | #105 |
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1000 points drop is not as bad as what it means.
As for Bernie, the business communities will just come up with something like Bloomberg to ensure another four years for Trump. They may not like Trump but Bernie will be much worse for them. |
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02-24-2020, 05:47 PM | #106 | |
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Also there is a difference between being short macro / micro. I short on a micro level but I buy and sell my portfolio on a macro level. 401k portfolio is usually a macro tied portfolio so treat it as such. If you want to find small deals and trades thats a bit more micro level trading. The deal is to not confuse on for another....
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02-24-2020, 05:59 PM | #107 |
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Market timing has become very difficult with the speed and velocity of market movements on news. Computer trading has completely changed things, not to say the algorithms are always right, but they move the market faster than you can digest news to make an informed decision.
Long term, the only timing you should do is rebalance back to your target allocation if the portfolio has drifted too far in either direction. Short term, you shouldn't have short term money in the market. Shorting the market... losing long term strategy, you say you are not a long term investor? Then cash is the right choice for you (not directed at you frk) Last edited by FQ06; 02-24-2020 at 06:11 PM.. |
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02-24-2020, 06:35 PM | #108 |
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Load up the truck on equities. Stay fully invested.
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02-24-2020, 07:42 PM | #109 | |
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how? is it because if you are past a certain income level, you can't get tax deduction for the traditional IRA contribution anyway? so you're already taxed on the money so it avoid being taxed on the back end? i'd check to make sure 100% how it works because you don't want to put away all this money thinking you're going to take your money out of a "Roth" and then end up owing taxes (i'm genuinely asking because i've kinda heard about this "backdoor Roth IRA" thing and want to do it as well)
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02-24-2020, 08:07 PM | #110 |
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Backdoor Roth process:
1. Make a non deductible contribution to a traditional IRA 2. Convert the contribution to Roth Just that simple. You can do this for both you and a spouse. Some gotchas: 1. If you have any money anywhere in a traditional IRA, you will be subject to the pro rata rule and that can create some serious reporting and tax headaches. So, if you already have money in tIRAs, then get really smart or find a CPA that is really smart (most are clueless when it comes to backdoor Roths). If you do have tIRAs and a 401k, you could see if you can roll the tIRAs into your 401k if your 401k allows it and your 401k has good funds. 401k balances are not subject to the pro rata rule. 2. If you have ANY earnings on the tIRA contributions when you do the conversion, you can leave them in the tIRA and pay no taxes. But that will create headaches if you want to do another backdoor Roth next year. What I do is just convert the earnings to Roth and pay the taxes at the time. Since I only wait a week between contributing to the tIRA and converting to Roth, I usually have no earnings. Makes life easier. 3. Filling out the 8606 tax form is a must and can be baffling. I keep very careful track of all of my Roth conversions as well as filing the 8606. Withdrawing from a Roth is fairly complex if you have contributions, conversions and/or earnings. If you are over 59 1/2, withdraw away. No taxes, no penalties. If you are under 59 1/2, you can always withdraw contributions tax and penalty free. But a backdoor Roth is NOT a contribution, it is a conversion and that has special rules for withdrawals. Here are the Roth withdrawal rules: ORDER OF DISTRIBUTIONS Regular contributions Taxable portion of first conversion Nontaxable portion of first conversion Each subsequent conversion, in order, with the taxable portion coming out first for each conversion Earnings (any increase in value occurring inside the Roth IRA) TAXES AND PENALTIES UNDER AGE 59.5 FIVE YEAR CONVERSION HOLDING PERIOD NOT MET Contributions: Tax-No; Penalty-No Conversions: Tax-No; Penalty-Yes (Taxable Portion) Conversions: Tax-No ;Penalty-No (Nontaxable Portion) Earnings: Tax-Yes; Penalty-Yes UNDER AGE 59.5 FIVE YEAR CONVERSION HOLDING PERIOD MET Contributions: Tax-No; Penalty-No Conversions: Tax-No; Penalty-No (Taxable Portion) Conversions: Tax-No; Penalty-No (Nontaxable Portion) Earnings: Tax-Yes; Penalty-Yes OVER AGE 59.5 LESS THAN FIVE YEARS SINCE OPENING FIRST ROTH IRA Contributions: Tax-No ;Penalty-No Conversions: Tax-No; Penalty-No (Taxable Portion) Conversions: Tax-No; Penalty-No (Nontaxable Portion) Earnings: Tax-Yes; Penalty-No OVER AGE 59.5 FIVE YEARS OR MORE SINCE OPENING FIRST ROTH IRA All Distributions Are Qualified No Taxes No Penalties Another very cool option is the mega backdoor Roth. This is where you make after tax contributions to your 401k (not Roth 401k) and then do an in-service rollover of that money into an external Roth. Your plan needs to allow this. Mine does and I have been cramming $19,500 a year into my Roth. Add that to the $14k between my wife and I backdoor Roths, and we are putting a lot of money each year into our Roths. By the time I retire, there will be a significant balance in all of our Roths. And it has a lot of earnings that will come out tax free. Are you cornfused now? I'm still not sure I get all the little details, but I am comfortable putting the money in.
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