Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel
As far as I’m concerned the exchange is concluded. I mentioned Level 3 autonomy, he asked for more detail, and I provided that.
As I stated earlier, I do not necessarily buy into the OPs timeline. I expect to own an EV sometime by 2030. I wouldn’t be willing to bet I’ll be able hop in an autonomous ride share vehicle before 2050. And it might take far longer than that. Or hell, maybe it won’t. But either way, I do think that the progress being made will continue, and I think that tech and regulatory issues will continue to be tackled and solved.
Never is a long time, so when I hear “It’ll never work”, I wonder what the person making that assertion believes about 1000, 10,000, 100,000 years, centuries, millennia from now. It’s a different type of thinking that to me comes with some level of onus. Hey, 1 + 1 will never equal 3, right? Some things just wont ever be. It’s not like you have a group of highly motivated people working on making 1 + 1 equal something else, maybe just a little bit more than 2, you know? Like, hey if we could just get it to equal 2.00001 guys maybe we’d eventually get to 3? No. Nope, that ain’t happening. So, sure I’ll go on record saying 1 + 1 will never equal 3. And if you ask me why, I’ll tell you it’s because 1 + 1 has always equaled 2 and no one - no matter how hard you try - can nudge that even one step toward 3.
Fifty years ago you could point to a car and say, that thing cannot drive itself. And you’d be absolutely right. Today, you can point at a car and say that, and then you can go online and watch a similar car - one that came off an assembly line just like the one your own vehicle did - with modifications made by smart people, do just that. So, we are not talking about a zero progress situation. In fact, we are talking about real progress that you can see with your own eyes - not just read about in someone’s lab notes or white paper.
That’s all I’ve got for now. This thread isn’t gong anywhere so I’ll make sure to drop in every twelve months to take stock of where we are. And if the autonomous vehicle movement dies and disappears, I’ll be the first one to say, “I’ll be damned - the naysayers were right and I was wrong.”
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When the price of cars plummeted with the Model T, the transition to cars was baked in. AV is headed in the same direction. If the safety issue is solved, the transition to AV becomes inevitable. And I guess I should have asked the AV naysayers whether they think the shift from IC to electric is now baked in? What were they saying about that 10 years ago?