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Originally Posted by STK
Wow. Lots of hostility.
So this is what I said:"I see a mix of autonomous fleets, autonomous individual owned, driver-driven electric, and legacy IC cars for quite a while. It will also depend on where you live - city, burbs, exurbs, or rural."
The move to electric is already under way. Further, the success of Uber and Lyft tells you the demand for own-car alternatives is extremely high in urban areas. Well beyond what was once thought. The real tipping point will be the self-driving car. Technological change tends to happen slower than you think and then suddenly faster than you think. The use of 4-G and soon to be 5-G connected mobile phones is an obvious example of rapid technological change. How old is the iphone? 10 years? Did you all see that coming? Or did you think "picture phones" were akin to flying cars. And 5G will blow away 4G.
The speed and success of autonomous driving is certainly open for debate. And every car company, parts producer, tech company and leading semiconductor company could be wrong. But this is not some odd futurist bullshit and some guy inventing in his basement. The investments are already in the tens if not hundreds of of billions of dollars when considering monies spent on electric drive trains, battery technology, AI, semiconductor development, software development, and electronics. Capitalization of companies in this space have skyrocketed. It is part of national industrial policy in some countries, How much did Intel spend for Mobileye? Look at Nvidia. How much is Google spending? I guess they're all idiots poring money into a sinkhole. Or waiting for their investments to pay off in 30 years?
As for how it will affect access to the roads for owner operated cars, it doesn't require much imagination. If autonomous vehicles are safer and faster, cars that are less safe and slower will face increased regulation and eventual prohibition from some areas. Do you doubt there will be lanes set aside for autonomous long-haul trucks if the technology proves out?
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I could point to something like space travel. 50 years ago the US set out to walk on the moon. Then next was colonization of the moon, then as a launch platform, next was Mars. With the speed of technology, we should be colonized on Mars. We're not even close. Sometimes the pursuit is possible but the reason is not viable due to financial, societal, and political reasons.
I still think the tech is decades away to get a Level 5 autonomous vehicle that can safely operate within a non autonomous traffic environment. I don't even think it is economically possible. In the US the political ramifications are serious IMO, but young people are not taught American history nor the unique political situation we have here; it is eroding quickly, so maybe that part I probably have wrong. I just don't see how the transition happens that is economically possible. You state AVs will have dedicated lanes. Very easy to say, extremely hard to implement. There are not enough lanes now. Hot lanes take decades to plan and build. It takes decades to just satisfy the environmental impact assessment to build a road. The legal challenges to build a new road or additional lanes are ridiculous. Throw in the legal battle when a L5 runs over a kid, kills an old lady, or runs into white dude businessman, and AV will be set back years.
Comparing the advent of AV to cell phone tech is short sighted IMO. Trust me, I'm no Luddite by any stretch.