Quote:
Originally Posted by STK
Once again, you don't think the technology will be good enough. I get it. Nothing to do but wait and see.
On the congestion point, even with your extreme example, there won't be a need for parking in the city center which would greatly alleviate congestion. Typically, 2 out of the 5 or six lanes of a downtown street are parking as are 2 of the 3 lanes of a side street. Imagine if they were open.
|
I'll be clear. I don't think AV technology will be good enough at an economic price point that society can afford. I think if we humans committed to be better at driving and developed better driver education and had requirements for continuing education the desired reduction in occupant death rates could be lowered to level level that AV advocates believe can be achieved. That methodology would be trillions upon trillions less expensive.
As long has there is personal transportation in "city centers" there is going to be congestion and gridlock regardless of what is driving a car. Intersections cause congestion by the mere fact that cars must occupy the same space, but at different times to avoid collisions. AV is not going to solve that. As for highway congestion, at peak hours, the cars travelling on the highway have to slow down because there are cars exiting which must eventually stop at an intersection. Again, my example is not extreme, it's called rush hour. If the same amount of people are on the road in a human driven car or an AV, and for the most part congestion is caused by the sheer number of people commuting, how does AV increase speeds during rush hour?
I know engineers could solve the problem. A local control traffic management system that each flight (i.e. drive) is programmed to be taken at a specific time so that the placement of each vehicle is programmed to not be in the same place at the same time as another vehicle. All of that could be orchestrated by technology, I have no doubt about that, other than the fact that software and hardware is not perfect. The cost to get the level of redundancy that AV technology is near perfect, say 99.999%, is not affordable, and the transition to get there is not economically implementable.
I'm sure the response is artificial intelligence. Okay, I get it, but humans develop the kernel of AI. I'm not sure AI is perfect either.